Sunday, October 30, 2016

Dawkins Question

What would a human gene want if a gene could want? What? Genes can't want, but if they could, what would they want?

That likely tells us more about the future than anything else. If you say so. To reduce the size of the question to a partial answer, what do humans want? More money, power, fame, prestige, and not to be forgotten. Well we cannot all have that, only a few can, and as the population grows, the less people will acheive this success. Our genes do not care about these human concerns, only about survival, as a group, not as individual genes. A steady food supply would help.

Big changes in species seem to occur when the population goes through a bottleneck, which is usually the result of some stress on the population. Some will survive, some will not. Oh well, that is evolution. Then the species, or new species build back up, live how they live, and do it all again. With logic, can we look forward into time and guess which or what will cause the next bottleneck, and when it will occur? My guess is climate change and overpopulation, which since population drives climate change faster will occur quite soon.

My demise scenario goes something like this: carbon dioxide rises, and the sea ice melts, present temperature and 10 years, warmer temperature will do it sooner. The warming allows huge amount of methyl hydrate trapped on the floor of the arctic ocean to melt, which causes a 5 degree C rise in temperature. Fish and food become in short supply, which gets horded in the cool regions. Much effort will be made to correct the problem, but once the sea ice is gone, it will be to late to stop by human means. Too bad, so sad, government did not have the will to act. Methyl hydrate will kill many humans. Oh well, itewajda.

The bottleneck occurs. We must cooperate to survive, or we can kill each other off for resources... That will be the choice of the governments soon. Earth will suffer until the nuclear winter ends... The governments will not cooperate, the choice will be war. Perhaps 1 percent of the population will survive, likely through cannibalism and savaging. After the dust blocks the sun, the temperature will drop 15 degrees, ice and methyl hydrate will start forming in the polar regions. Soon the Earth will be habitat once again, but will the human species have survived?

I am sixty seven now, and I expect that the if I survive to the age of my parents, the methyl hydrate will take me out. Yes, I am saying it will happen that soon. Alternatives : cooperation and cutting green house gasses but not dust into the atmosphere.  Dust has a cooling effect. Burn coal and produce soot to block out the sun. China may be right by ignoring the western clean air methods.

But I digress, but maybe not. The gene may want to reproduce and survive, but to do that we must reduce in numbers, and soon. Our environment is too fragile, and we are too close to the edge. Oh well, itewajda. Growing old is optional, death is not.


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